,A woman and child stop by a canal in front of apartment buildings at China Evergrande Group's Life in Venice real estate and tourism development in Qidong, Jiangsu province, China, on Tuesday, Sept. 21, 2021.Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg
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KUALA LUMPUR: Moody’s Analytics expects China to make every effort to avoid a hard landing as it seeks to tame the housing market while financing pressure on developers has mounted.
In its research note on Tuesday, it said the long-term goal to deleverage the debt-ridden sector and lower housing costs will not change.
China’s property market is cooling, with measures of price growth, housing starts and sales moderating significantly over the past few months, it said.
Below is the report on the China property market and Moody’s Analytics viewpoints:
New-home prices were up 3.5% in August from a year earlier, the smallest growth since the property market rebounded from the pandemic fallout in June 2020.
Among the 70 major cities for which China releases monthly housing prices, 20 recorded month-over-month declines in new-home prices in August and 33 for resale prices.
Even in top-tier cities such as Guangzhou and Shenzhen, resale house price inflation eased substantially from the prior month.
Property sales contracted in July and August with floor space sold logging an 18% year-over-year decline in August.
The pace of new housing starts was quite slow compared with the same period in the previous two years as some property developers halted new projects amid tougher regulatory scrutiny on their financial health.
Chinese policymakers issued new financing rules called “the three red lines” for real estate companies in August 2020, banning firms with excessive leverage ratios from taking on more debt.
Other regulatory actions
Since then, there were a slew of other regulatory actions taken to tame the strong rally in property prices coming out of the pandemic downturn.
Regulators worry that an overheated property market could draw away resources and capital from the real economy and increase the risk of financial instability.
They strengthened restrictions on bank lending to the real estate sector, prompting some banks to raise mortgage rates. Some local governments also tightened the eligibility for home purchases and set price caps for sales.
The impacts of the curbs have come in stronger than expected, stoking concerns that they will spiral out of control. As property sales ebb, the financing pressure on developers has begun to mount, leaving many in a liquidity crunch amid dented property sales, restrained borrowing, and elevated financing costs. Rising concerns about developers' debt repayment capabilities have rattled the financial market.China Evergrande building in HKEvergrande Group, the country’s second-largest real estate behemoth with $300 billion in liability, is the most compelling example in the news headlines recently.