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CLICK TO ENLARGEPETALING JAYA: Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to rebound sharply in the final quarter of 2021, supported by the reopening of the country’s economy and strong external trade.

However, the disappointing GDP number in the third quarter of the year has prompted several brokerages to cut their full-year growth forecast for the country.

Maybank Investment Bank Research (Maybank IB), downgraded its 2021 GDP growth forecast to 3.8% from 4.2%.

The brokerage, however, kept its 2022 GDP growth forecast at 6%.

Similarly, CGS-CIMB Research lowered its 2021 GDP growth forecast to 3.5% from 3.9% previously to reflect the underperformance in the three months to September.

The brokerage, however, maintained its 2022 GDP growth forecast at 5.6%.

The country’s GDP contracted 4.5% in the third quarter of 2021, underperforming the Bloomberg median forecast for a contraction of 2.2%.

This compared with a growth of 16.1% in the second quarter of this year.

Year-to-date, the average GDP growth stood at 3.7%.

The government forecast a GDP growth of 3% to 4% in 2021 before accelerating to 5.5% to 6.5% in 2022.

“The economy will rebound in the fourth quarter of 2021 on economic reopening, underscoring the W-shape quarterly GDP path,” Maybank IB said in its report yesterday.CGS-CIMB said following progressive relaxation of containment measures since mid-August, economic activity and the labour market recovered from the trough in July.

“The recovery momentum is slated to resume in the fourth quarter of 2021, with all states having transitioned into either phase three or four of the National Recovery Plan (NRP) amid continuation of accommodative fiscal and monetary policies,” it said.

“The expansion of Covid-19 vaccinations to those under 18, as well as the administration of booster shots, will further strengthen the prospects of durable economic reopening going forward, supporting our base case of a stronger economic expansion of 5.6% next year,” it added.

AmBank Research, which cut its 2021 GDP growth forecast to 3.5% from its earlier projection of 4%, said it expected the economy for the final three months of the year to expand 3.4%.

“For the final quarter of 2021, we can expect the situation to improve, supported by the reopening of the economy. With as much as 95.2% of adult population have been fully vaccinated (as of Nov 13) and most states already in phase four of the NRP, we are on track towards economic recovery,” the financial group said.

It noted industries most affected by the Covid-19 pandemic, such as tourism and construction, would start to rebound from the deep-trough business cycle.

“Moving forward, the local economy will be reignited by the strong external trade especially through the semiconductor upswing.


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