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Key events to watch that will dictate market direction will be the Federal Reserve’s tapering move between now and mid-2022, a potential hike in United States interest rates by between 25-50bps next year, and the persistently high inflation rate.

THE recently ended third quarter (Q3) earnings season has now provided investors a glimpse of what is to come in 2022 as the relatively respectable quarterly results has now been overshadowed by a barrage of downgrades in earnings forecast for next year, mainly due to the one-off effect from Cukai Makmur or Prosperity Tax, which was announced in Budget 2022.

As we are well aware, on a seasonally-adjusted basis, Malaysia entered into a technical recession in Q3 as the economy contracted by 3.6% on a quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) basis, having registered a contraction of 1.9% q-o-q in the preceding quarter.

Compared with a year ago, the economy declined by 4.5% for the Q3 period and this was also well below the market estimate of a 2.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) contraction.

The key drag on the economy was the slow transition from phase one of the National Recovery Plan (NRP) during the quarterly period.

This impacted several sectors, in particular the construction sector, which saw a contraction of 20.6% y-o-y.

Nevertheless, as the economy is now fully opened up, it is refreshing to note that the economic contraction trend on a monthly basis is on a recovery path as the September 2021 monthly gross domestic product (GDP) data showed a contraction of just 1.1% y-o-y against 4.7% and 7.6% in August and July respectively.The banking sector, excluding the goodwill impairment carried out by CIMB for its Thai banking unit, showed strong quarterly earnings growth.

With Q3 2021 GDP data coming in well below market forecast, Q3 earnings momentum too were impacted.

On a q-o-q basis, Q3 earnings fell by 21.1%, reversing the preceding quarter’s growth of 3.7% q-o-q, while on a y-o-y basis, earnings momentum eased to just 13.5% from the staggering growth of 157% y-o-y growth in the Q2 quarterly period.

However, despite the relatively weaker earnings momentum, the ratio of companies’ earnings that surprised the market against disappointment improved as some 33% of companies reported earnings that were below expectations against 26% that was above the market forecast.

This translates to an earnings disappointment ratio of 1.28 times, which is slightly better than the preceding quarter’s 1.31 times print but still below the Q1 2021’s reading of 1.07 times.

The q-o-q trend is not unexpected as the Q3 period gives market analysts a better grip on what to expect for the full year and hence the results should show much stronger hits than misses.


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