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aws 全[区号(www.2km.me)_Singapore property curbs are short-term fix in bullish market

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Home sales and values are likely to pick up once the market gets used to the latest curbs, just like they did after the last round in 2018, analysts say after the government raised levies and tightened some lending limits.

SINGAPORE’S move to introduce property cooling measures may slow down demand and prices in the next six months. But this may just be a short-term fix in a market with an insatiable appetite for homes.

Home sales and values are likely to pick up once the market gets used to the latest curbs, just like they did after the last round in 2018, analysts say after the government raised levies and tightened some lending limits.

Like other countries around the world, Singapore’s residential property market has remained resilient during the pandemic. Low interest rates and a rebounding economy have fuelled demand for homes in the city-state, prompting policy makers to take steps to maintain affordability.

The latest curbs focus on buyers of second homes for investment and foreigners purchasing private property, rather than residents seeking to purchase a place to live.

As a result, they’re unlikely to have a long-term impact, given that locals make up the majority of buyers, says Alan Cheong, executive director of research at Savills Plc.

“The measures are something akin to pointing the gun to the sea when the enemy comes from the back,” Cheong says.

The steps may have a bigger impact on the mid to high-end market, which has a larger portion of investors and foreign purchasers, rather than the mass-market segment which has more first-time buyers, says Christine Sun, senior vice president of research and analytics at OrangeTee & Tie.

Private home prices climbed 5.3% in the first nine months of the year. New home sales in November jumped to a four-month high after the city-state gradually eased social restrictions.

The public housing market has also been buoyant, with resale prices surging a record 9.1% through September.

Like in the aftermath of the 2018 curbs, Singapore home prices may dip 1% to 2% over the next two quarters before resuming growth that more closely keeps pace with rising incomes, Morgan Stanley analysts write in a note.

Citigroup Inc says home sales may fall between 25% and 35% in the near term, mainly due to a reduction in demand from investors, as well as a decreased desire among permanent residents and foreigners given the substantial stamp duties imposed.

But the sales volume may return to normal after three to six months as buyers “acclimatise to the measures amid still-strong fundamentals of the residential market and soft interest rates,” Citigroup analyst Brandon Lee writes in a note.

The higher additional stamp duties will remove buyers at the margin who would be most vulnerable to any interest-rate increase, says Christine Li, head of research for Asia Pacific at Knight Frank in Singapore.

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